Flood Models are Biased, Because They are Models. But that's OK!

Posted by Ivan Maddox on Sep 1, 2015 10:44:00 AM

With the release of FloodScope , our risk assessment software, InsitePro , now comes with two flood models that users can use for evaluating USA flood. Having multiple flood models is useful for creating flood risk scoring analytics because it allows the scoring to consider more than one view of the risk, and to leverage a correlation analysis to account for the uncertainty aspect of a location’s risk; e.g., if two models agree, uncertainty goes down. Working with these two flood models also presents an opportunity to explore an aspect of flood models not frequently discussed in flood modeling literature: the bias. The two flood models that are available for all InsitePro users in the USA are FloodScope and WorldFlood , and they have demonstrably different biases.

What? Flood models are biased? 

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Topics: Flood Modeling, Flood Risk, Risk Models, Risk Scoring

How vulnerable is your building to earthquake risk?

Posted by Ivan Maddox on May 27, 2015 10:00:00 AM

In my previous post, I explored the two earthquake metrics that help insurers understand the likelihood of an earthquake affecting a specific location. This post is about the two metrics that express the severity of property damage in the event an earthquake does occur.

Unlike the science behind earthquake forecasting, which has limited capabilities, the science behind the civil engineering that enables buildings and structures to withstand earthquakes is well developed. Insurance analytics and earthquake models leverage this engineering know-how to estimate potential damage (or vulnerability, to use the modeling term) for a given building. 

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Topics: Natural Hazard Risk, Risk Models, Earthquake

Is it possible to predict an earthquake? Here are 2 metrics that try.

Posted by Ivan Maddox on May 21, 2015 1:14:44 PM

The modeling of earthquake risk for property insurance is an inexact science. This is because the inner workings of the triggers are so obscure from direct observation; events of interest are relatively infrequent; and the time period between events is so long. These difficulties lead directly to the kind of innovation and creativity necessary to build models that live up to George Box’s tenet that “all models are wrong, but some are useful.”

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Topics: Natural Hazard Risk, Risk Models, Earthquake

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Welcome to The Risks of Hazard, brought to you by Intermap Technologies®. From the latest industry news and trends, to insight from thought leaders around the globe, stay tuned for a variety of content aimed at helping you better understand the role of location-based intelligence in the world of insurance underwriting and risk assessment.

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