The Risks of Hazard

President Trump signed a hurricane relief bill that includes $16 billion in debt relief for the embattled National Flood Insurance Program. The flood program has a Congress mandated debt ceiling of $30.4 billion, which it reached during Harvey, Irma, and Maria (HIM). This action will allow U.S. Treasury funding of the program.

Is help on the way?

Well, kind of. Premiums are on the rise as the search for actuarial solvency continues for the NFIP. You can read the entire Insurance Journal article from April 5th titled Federal Flood Insurance Average Premium to Rise 8% but here is how it ends: ‘However the premium hikes are likely insufficient to keep the program from sinking into debt, according to a recent government report.’

What is being done currently –

A tumultuous U.S. Nat Cat 2017 year bookended by huge first quarter losses from hail and tornado and an estimated $50bn+ insured losses from HIM (Harvey, Irma, and Maria) still did not impede the private flood insurance market from growing by 51.2% according to information referenced in an Insurance Journal article published on March 18th of this year. That news comes despite Congress’ delay in reform and reauthorization of the NFIP, currently +-$25 billion in debt (pre HIM).

PropertyCasualty360 published an article in December, 2017 that begins with this eye-opening quote, “Research conducted by a team of U.S. and U.K. scientists and engineers suggests that U.S. federal flood maps underestimate the number of Americans at risk for flood by more than 27 million people.”

A study from IOPscience gave a more onerous estimate of 41 million Americans living on the 100 year floodplain. And, with a value of $5.5 trillion! In contrast, current FEMA estimates are around 13 million Americans.

At the 2017 American Geophysical Union Meeting Dec. 11-15 in New Orleans, scientists presented a ‘redrawn’ flood map of the U.S. (coastal areas excluded) simulating every river catchment area. Intermap’s InsitePro flood mapping tool uses a mathematical tree structure called the Strahler Number to predict risk. It is a numbering system that correlates a numeric value to stream size from small tributaries to large riverways. The entire algorithm then uses our proprietary 5m seamless & contiguous bare earth elevation dataset to generate location specific flood risk scores.

At Intermap Technologies we write about the ever-changing landscape of insurance, government, and natural catastrophe. Because of the pending reauthorization plans for the NFIP (H.R.1423 - National Flood Insurance Program Reauthorization and Improvement Act of 2017) currently working its way through Congress, our most recent blogs have been centered around flood.

I get to work with some very talented folks at Intermap Technologies on a Natural Catastrophe Risk product called InsitePro. It is a tool designed for underwriters that analyzes and scores location-based risk. With H.R.2901 - Flood Insurance Market Parity and Modernization Act - making its way through Congress, thus enabling the Private Flood Insurance Market to close the Insurance Protection Gap as well as alleviate some of the NFIP’s $25B debt load, we are seeing a growing interest in InsitePro. One reason for that interest is our U.S. flood model called FloodScope. It is derived from a seamless proprietary 5m elevation dataset and is both distinctly different from and more useful than FEMA’s FIRMs for evaluating flood risk at a single location. Here is the difference…

The problems facing private insurers are both many and well documented.

In a BenefitsPro article titled Insurers still coming up short on digitalization written by Jack Craver in November of this year, he stated, “One of the most common barriers to truly transforming the business via digital solutions is the persistence of legacy systems that employees continue to rely on instead of newer approaches. In fact, 80 percent say that while the organization is currently undergoing upgrades to their system, the implementation is hampered by fragmented leadership that conflicts about replacing legacy systems for policy administration and agency management.” And, in a PropertyCasualty360 article from the same month titled Top 7 Insurance industry concerns for 2017, author Jamie Yoder states his first two concerns as:

1. The rise of insurance technology
   There are several business challenges that established insurers are facing as they try to meet new customer needs while improving core insurance functions. A specific focus on insurance technology, or “InsurTech,” has emerged to help insurers solve these challenges.
2. Artificial intelligence
   The initial impact of artificial intelligence (AI) primarily relates to improving efficiencies and automating existing customer-facing, underwriting and claims processes. Over time, its impact will be more profound; it will identify, assess and underwrite emerging risks and identify new revenue sources…